Liberal Vision

BBC poll: LibDem activists out of step with LibDem voters

A ComRes poll released today by the  BBC’s Daily Politics show, asked LibDem councillors two questions – who would they favour us supporting in the event of a hung Parliament and do they think the expenses scandal has harmed LibDem chances?

On the expenses scandal, 12% thought their LibDem MP/PPC had been damaged and 78% didn’t.

On the question of which party we should support in government if we held the balance of power in a hung Parliament, 31% said Labour and 16% said the Tories (a “neither” option was not on offer, so the rest are in the “don’t know” column). That’s a 2:1 preference for Labour of those stating a preference.

In pretty stark contrast are the views of the 6 million people who vote for us (over 99% of whom are not party members).

Asked by ICM a month ago whether they would prefer a Cameron-led Conservative government or a Brown-led Labour government, 2005 LibDem voters split 61%-26% in favour of the Tories. Amongst (the diminished pool of)  LibDem voters in the 2009 Euro elections – the split was 42%-34% in favour of Cameron’s Conservatives, according to yougov.

The questions are not identical. But this is the best statistical evidence I have seen to suggest that there is a very measurable difference of political outlook between the 20% of the population inclined to vote LibDem and the 0.02% of the population who are active party members.

For what it’s worth, I would be a “neither/don’t know” voter on the “who would you support in a hung Parliament?” question and a Cameron over Brown voter on which government I’d prefer if forced to choose.

LibDems within 3% of Labour in latest poll

ComRes have us at 21%, with Labour at 24%. After a mildly disappointing set of polls with us back in the c.17% zone, this poll again opens the prospect of the LibDems coming second in vote share in 2010.

As I’ve argued before, this is a long shot.

But were we to achieve such a result, it would be far, far more significant than whether we win an extra few target seats.

This means the “air war” is becoming increasingly significant, and the “ground war” less so.

Labour teetering on the brink of apocalypse

Today’s ComRes poll puts Labour on just 22%, the Tories are on 39% and we’re on 18%. If Mandelson is loopy enough to back Brown right through an election campaign, expect the LibDems to come second in vote share. Brown will lose votes every time he opens his mouth and Nick could expect to make major headway as a “first election” third-party leader, especially given his easy TV manner.

It’s up to Mandelson now. The Cabinet and the PLP have both castrated themselves with a blunt and rusty knife.

I hope the Prince of Darkness has lost his marbles and drives his party (for it is now, unquestionably, his party) to Destination Oblivion, but I suspect he will still remove the PM a couple of months before polling day.

UPDATE:  Sunday Mail suggests Brown will quit pre-election

Labour down to 18% support for Westminster elections

Mike Smithson has the details of the latest MORI poll. Con 40%, Lab 18%, LibDem 18%, Others 24%. Staggering stuff.

Nick Clegg is the only party leader improving his public standing.

LibDems overtake Labour in opinion polls

Just to show how amazingly febrile the present political atmosphere is, compare tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph ICM poll with the post from Julian, below.

The poll puts the LibDems ahead of Labour - for both the Westiminster and European elections. These are staggering figures – and point to Labour teetering on the brink of oblivion. Is this finally the just reward for Nick’s high media profile over the past ten days?

Westminster: Con 40%, Lab 22%, LibDem 25%

European: Con 29%, Lab 17%, LibDem 20%, UKIP 10%, Green 11%, BNP 5%

UPDATE: The Sunday’s Telegraph coverage is here