Liberal Vision

What should liberals do in Buckingham?

Nigel Farage’s decision to contest the seat of Buckingham at the next election poses a tactical problem for Liberal Democrats. Firstly, should the party continue to observe the established orthodoxy of standing aside for the Speaker? Secondly, if we do, how would we want liberal-minded voters in Buckingham to cast their ballot?

There’s no doubt that Farage has pulled off something of a coup. The bookies already have him at 4/1 to win the seat and he has a number of measurable advantages. Firstly, the seat is very true blue and if Farage can present himself as a de facto Tory, he may become the default choice for the many of the constituency’s Conservative voters. Secondly, although UKIP will be contesting hundreds of seats at the next election, it has very few that can be considered genuine targets - except this one.  Consequently, he might reasonably expect UKIP activists, canvassers and leafletters to descend on the seat in substantial numbers. Thirdly, it’s an area of the country in which UKIP perform pretty strongly - in the local elections in Buckinghamshire this year, they polled 13.5% of the overall vote. Finally, if Farage is effectively in a  two horse race against Bercow, he can style himself as the anti-Westminster, “send a message” candidate, which could well appeal to a jaded, cynical and disillusioned electorate.

This last point should give us pause for thought. From what I can discern of UKIP’s platform, they are not - to put it mildly - enthusiasts for domestic constitutional reform. In broad terms, their position is to withdraw from the EU in order to give MORE power to Westminster politicians like John Bercow. Those of us who think that cleaning up our politics means more than changing the personalities that sit on the green benches might have an opportunity in Buckingham to put a strong case for radical surgery of the whole Westminster system - in stark contrast to the conservatism advocated by Bercow and Farage.

Although this is true blue territory, the LibDems and Labour both polled about 20% of the vote last time. In a three cornered fight, a credible, mainstream, liberal candidate might even win.

Is this man the Tories’ and LibDems’ worst nightmare?

Nigel Farage is the leader of a political party that was supposed to have been consigned to the dustbin of electoral history. After a flirtation with the  TV celebrity Robert Kilroy-Silk and a one-off electoral breakthrough, it  is was all going to end in tears.

The remnants of the United Kingdom Independence Party were to be picked over and shared out. This bunch of “loonies, extremists and fruitcakes” (to quote David Cameron) would then disappear back under whichever rock they’d crawled out from under.

Bad news then for Mr. Cameron - and any others who expected to laugh knowingly as UKIP entered its death throes. The party will field 500 candidates at the next General Election and may have found a genuine means to build its infrastructure after its sensational second place showing in the Euro elections. UKIP’s poll ratings (usually clumped together with the growing % for “Others”) are as high as 8% for the Westminster elections. This is no longer just a day of headlines about a quirky party doing surprisingly well in a one-off set of obscure elections. UKIP is here to stay.

Farage set himself the objective of winning ten seats in this month’s European Parliamentary elections. A big ask. He’d pledged to tender his resignation as Party Leader if he failed to hit this target - and no one disbelieved him. He comfortably exceeded it. He may be considered a fringe figure in some quarters, but he is now a definite feature of Britain’s political landscape.

Nigel Farage has made a string of very sharp tactical and strategic moves. He has a slim, streamlined, but very talented staff. Gawain Towler, his chief lieutant, is a top-grade political asset with sharp organisational and communications judgement. Not just more personable than Damian McBride (most homo sapiens clear that hurdle), but highly intelligent too.

Unlike most politicians, Farage is not afraid to send himself up and when he does so, he comes across as a balanced man who is very comfortable in his own skin - in stark contrast to the anally-retentive members of the Westminster establishment.

The really intriguing thing is that under Farage, UKIP is attempting to reach out beyond its narrow constitutional objections to the European Union. At today’s launch of the Save our Pubs & Clubs Campaign, he just turned up unannounced, matter-of-fact, mingled with other guests and then gave a short, pithy and witty presentation.

This is the sort of fleetness of foot and flexibility that, frustratingly, the leader of the Liberal Party used to have when it was smaller. Grimond, Thorpe and Steel led only a handful of MPs. This meant that their ability to set the party’s agenda themselves was considerable. A regrettable downside of having many more MPs (alongside a farcical, choking network of internal committees) is that Nick Clegg has to spend a considerable amount of time  managing the party rather than just getting out there and “doing stuff.” Clegg’s day-to-day diary seems closer to that of a diplomat or ambassador, rather  than that of a campaigner.

Farage is latching on to a number of freedom issues - such as the smoking ban - which the three major parties are united in ignoring . UKIP  are beginning to couch their Euroscepticism within a wider narrative of  antagonism towards the state.  This doesn’t, of course, guarantee an automatic launch pad to  10 Downing Street, but it is a very clever “niche” strategy.

When - after the next election - the Tories become the third major party to appear to renege on a commitment to a Euro referendum, expect UKIP to have a field day.