Hung Parliament and the value of the £ - part 2

Well, Nick might have thought the discussion about hung parliament and the value of the £ had been put to bed with his comments last week. Not so. Here is a short extract from Tuesday night’s Newsnight - an interview with Lord Steel and Terry Smith (from brokerage Tullet Prebon).

Rarely have I seen anyone praise Vince Cable as highly as Mr Smith. But note the recurring theme we are hearing from many on the business side of UK plc - that the cuts being proposed by ALL three main parties are simply insufficient for the scale of the problem.
Come on Nick, let Vince off his leash to tell it as it really is.

Coalition: Chris Huhne confirms - the Cyberlock applies

Last night’s Newsnight (see below) led on the LibDem protocols in the event of a hung Parliament. Chris Huhne stood up to the plate to answer Gavin Esler’s questions off the back of a pretty jaw dropping package by Michael Crick.

 Chris said that he understood a conference resolution passed in Southport in 1998 applies to the party post-May 6^th if there’s no overall majority in the House of Commons.

 This would mean that Nick would require a 75% majority of BOTH LibDem MPs and 75% of the Federal Executive before (according to Crick) Nick could “do a deal”. And ”not just coalition”. Nick would need this support before signing up to “any substantial proposal which could affect the party’s independence of political action”.

 Brian Orrell – who seems an all round nice bloke, and used to play a Cyberman in the old Dr Who TV series – may play a decisive role in virtue of his role as Federal Exec Vice President.

If Nick Clegg fell short of these hurdles, I gather that he could choose to convene a conference by the seaside or conduct a members’ ballot or something equally insane.

(Bear in mind that the total membership of the party is now measurably less than the number of registered voters in ONE parliamentary constituency and the number of LibDem federal conference reps would be less than the electorate in a standard Parish council ward…how democratic is that?).

If we want to claim that a hung Parliament is not necessarily a bad thing and that the markets needn’t panic, we at least need to have our own rules sorted out. And these rules need to be both sane and practical.

If these really are our rules, it’s hard to argue that the financial markets should show any confidence at all in the likely LibDem response to a no-majority situation at Westminster.

Let’s hope Nick makes it very plain in his leader’s speech that he will totally disregard the Southport rules, made quite clearly for a different age.

Watch the full Newsnight programme here.

A hung Parliament and the value of the £. Discuss.

In response to emails asking to see the Newsnight piece (3rd March 2010) about the relationship between media headlines on the growing (?) possibility of a hung parliament and the value of the £ and specifically that reference to the Liberal Democrats being unable to enter “formal” coalition without the support of 75% of MPs and “top party brass”. Here it is…..

Lib Dem love-in IS on its way

Well, Well.. No sooner is my ink dry stating that a Cameron Mockumentary is on its way,  I am told that we are to get a Cleggfest too, courtesy of good old ITV. Having deployed Piers Morgan and Sir Trevor to cover the other party leaders, we must surely expect an interrogator of the fairer sex to cover Nick Clegg’s softer side (might as well tick gender balance while you are at it ITV). So will it be the uber sexy Katie Derham or Mary Nightingale perhaps? 

No tx date yet but watch this space….

(UPDATE: Word is its Mary )

Past,present,future of the Liberals..

Here’s a 5 minute film put together by BBC’s The One Show looking at the past, present and, most importantly, the possible future of the Liberal Democrats. Timely questions.

You can see the whole programme on iplayer.

A masterclass in risk-taking from the New Orleans Saints

Big occassions need big men. Men that will rise to the challenge, galvanise their team and take some big risks - when it really counts. When history is in the making you dont want Mr Timid knocking at the door. Opportunity rewards the bold and the brave. So it was with sheer delight that I watched the underdogs - the New Orleans Saints- scoop the biggest prize of all - the Superbowl.

If you did not watch the game, this may mean nothing to you - go watch it. But Sean Payton (the Saints coach) proved himself to be one of  the gutsiest coaches ever to come to a Superbowl game.

The Colts came into the game clear favourites. The first quarter went  as expected. It was all Colts; at one point they were leading 10-0 and many thought, I am sure, that it was game over. The Saints seemed to be taking too many risks - like going for a touchdown when a field goal could have been banked.  But by the end of the second quarter the Saints had fought their way back into the game not by changing their game plan - but by staying true to it. By half time it looked clear to me that the Saints could only win if they DID take those risks - and by jove that is what they were doing . With the score standing at 10-6 to the Colts (and much of the money on the Colts) I put my money on the Saints.

Coming out at the opening of the second half - Sean Payton did the unthinkable - he took another, huge, risk calling for an onside kick to keep posession with the Saints. Yes it was risky but it proved to be as brilliant as it was unexpected. From there on in the Saints never really looked like losing. Nor did they lose their willingness to take risks - going for a two point conversion, with all the risks that entailed (and challenging the call when it was ruled foul). These boys were going for it. They kept the brilliant (arguably the best ever ) Colts quarterback Peyton Manning out of the game for over an hour and that probably proved decisive. When he did get onto the field they kept the pressure up - eventually winning that well deserved (and brilliantly taken) turnover. Actually I think the Colts were technically the better team on the night but they had no answer for the passion, the risk-taking and team spirit of the Saints. The Saints won 31-17.

So what has this to do with politics or the Liberal Democrats ? I think that Nick Clegg can learn a great deal from the Saints coach Sean Payton. And I urge all Liberal Democrats to go watch the game. It is a masterclass in leadership - of stepping up to the plate when the big game is on - of taking risks - of having faith in your team and your team having faith in you - giving them the belief and the tools to win - and win when it mattered.

After 43 years of mediocrity these first time finalists had not fared too well in recent years. They had been the also rans for too many years. So when opportunity came knocking, boy were they hungry for it. Second was not enough.

Offensive tackle Jon Stinchcomb said “You know you’re going to be competing to win, ” …. “..You want to know that Coach backs you, he has faith in our group, and he’s going to put us in situations to be successful.” ….”So those aggressive points -(risks!) - he’s putting the ball in our court, saying, ‘Go make a play, guys. I’ve got faith in you. Go make me right.’ That’s exactly what you want.”

Linebacker Scott Fujita agreed “(The coach) came in playing to win this game….You like that… He’s got a certain swagger about him, it carries over to the offense….Now you’ve got a lot of guys playing aggressive, playing confident”

Thats what we want to see from Nick, (ok not the swagger but) but  leader of men that says “go for it” . We will take risks, because playing it safe is not good enough - and the prize is worth winning. This is the best chance we have had in a very long time so lets not have regrets later about where we should have been bolder. Lets be brave.

Ok we can’t win the Superbowl (can you imagine Vince in shoulder pads?) . We can’t win the election. But we can make history. We can change politics forever - and thats our Superbowl. I am not sure who our quarterback is, but Nick needs to be our Sean Payton. Please go watch the game Nick.

Lib Dem AM Mick Bates “cannot remember” punching paramedic

Oh dear - the Beeb is reporting that Mick Bates, Lib Dem AM for Montgomeryshire, is being accused of assaulting a paramedic who had been called to help him during a night out last month.

Bates was apparently kicked out of a restaurant, before allegedly verbally and physically assaulting the paramedic. He was then “kept under observation by security” at A&E.

LD head Kirsty Williams has seemingly claimed that he was knocked unconscious, a claim refuted by the paramedic. The relevance of this is that Mick Bates says he “cannot remember” what happened during the incident. It has previously been understood that he will stand down from the assembly next year (irrespective of these allegations).

The case continues.

Update: Steph Ashley got in there first, with her take on the incident (and timing of the report) over at Dib Lemming.

Shirley Williams says there’s a place in the party for me.

I have only met Shirley Williams once, whilst working for Sir Ming Campbell, but I have always deeply admired her. So when I heard her on the radio today talking about her new book “Climbing the bookshelves” on the Simon Mayo show on Radio Five Live I had a thought. There has been much agnst in recent times about “the left” vs the “right” within the party. So why not ask her whether there is a place in this party that I love for free market liberals. (I used the term “free market liberal” because it was radio five and I thought it a more straight forward term than “classical liberal”).

Low and behold five minutes later - there was my question being broadcast across the airwaves. 

And the answer to my question, from Shirley Williams no less, was YES!. The requirement for being a Liberal Democrat is being totally committed to civil liberties and internationally minded; views on the market differ. She did go on to say that given recent events I should rethink my views on the free market - but as far as she is concerned I belong.

Well, I definately tick both boxes on civil liberties andn being internationally minded - so as far as she is concerned I am good to go. Yippee.

You may wonder why I asked the question. Well, I have to confess there are some days when I do doubt whether I fit - these are few however and come largely after aggressive or unpleasant comments from a vocal minority. There are also days when I will shout at the radio, tv or newspaper because of the timidity of our leadership, the confusion over some policy launch, and yes some policy announcement I disagree with. But I doubt I will ever find a party that I agree with entirely on policy or strategy until I start the Angela Harbutt Party (don’t worry - no plans on that score!).

No… the reason I asked the question was because I was pretty sure she would say “yes Angela” there is a place for you. And she did just that. I think it is so easy to focus on the small thinks that divide us and lose sight of the much bigger things that unite us.  Today I feel united.

I will upload the interview, if I can, later this evening. If you can’t wait you can hear the whole of Simon Mayo show here (catch Mark Kermode reviews, interview with Harry Rednap etc …superb programme as ever). The Shirley Williams interview is about 1 hour into the programme.

UPDATE: Ok.. it was a long and wide ranging interview on Radio Five and I struggled - and then gave up - trying to edit it to just ten minutes for YOUTUBE purposes. So I have put up here only Shirley’s answer to my question. I do urge you to listen to the full interview (see above for link to BBC iplayer). If you read post this late or really need the interview sometime in the future when it falls off iplayer, I have captured the full interview so we have it stored and can email it to anyone that asks us for it.

Ex-policeman Mike Crockart set to be Lib Dem MP

As an anonymous poster commiserated t’other day, Mike Crockart has been selected as the Lib Dem PPC for Edinburgh West.

I am reliably informed that this is our second safest seat in the whole land, with a majority of 13,600.

The candidates were:

* Paul Edie (social care convener)
* Euan Robson (former Scottish Government minister)
* Mike Crockart (ex-policeman)
* Siobhan Mathers (party policy convener)

The voting went as follows:

First round
Crockart 50
Edie 44
Mathers 23
Robson 20

After transfers
Crockart 55
Edie 48
Mathers 34

Final round
Crockart 77
Edie 57

How exciting.

More info here.

Clegg and Cable - could it be like Owen and Steel all over again?

The good news is that the shambolic party conference has not impacted on us in the polls (yet) - the you gov poll in tomorrow’s Telegraph has the LibDems on 20% (+3%), the Tories are down two points on 39% and Labour down one on 26%.

But my worry was not so much that we’d crash because of a few bad headlines, but that our communications infrastructure may not be robust enough to withstand the rigours of a General Election campaign.

Vince Cable’s high profile and popularity should be a great asset at the next election. However, it also raises some difficulties. The Liberal Democrats now have, to some extent, a dual leadership - not wholly dissimilar to that of the two Davids in 1987. The parallel is not a happy one.

By common acceptance, the Alliance campaign in 1987 was the worst of the three parties - and a fair chance of coming second in vote share at the outset was comprehensivley squandered in a confusing tangle of contradictory  messages coming from the mouths of Owen and Steel. With the two men on a punishing schedule - and often at different ends of the country - any differences of nuance were ruthlessly exposed by the media as evidence of fundamental cracks in the SDP-Liberal Alliance.

A similar risk surely applies to the Nick and Vince show in 2010. Of course, the Owen-Steel relationship was characterised by a personal animosity that doesn’t apply in the Clegg-Cable case. But cordiality does not firefproof you against blunders.

Both Nick and Vince have an endearing tendency to say what they think. These are not tedious, automaton politicians who parrot a script. And therein lies the danger. One can imagine it now - Nick is in Manchester expounding, say, the need for savage spending cuts, while Vince is in Cornwall saying that cuts certainly need not to be savage, but will have to be serious. In the heat of an election campaign, a small distintion in emphasis or the choice of slightly different adjectives will be all the press pack need to start running stories of LibDem chaos and confusion.

Modern communications technology (they didn’t have mobile phones or the internet in the dark days of the late 80s), should help mitigate this risk. On the other hand, the very nature of today’s relentless rolling news media means exponentially greater opportunities for gaffes.

One thing’s for sure - we’ll need much better co-ordination of messages than was evident in Bournemouth. Three or four weeks of such confusion would dash any realistic hope of gaining support as the election campaign progressed.

UPDATE 9pm, 26th September: Perhaps conference mayhem is what the public want to see! ICM have the Tories on 40% (-3%), Labour on 26% (+-0)% and LibDems on 23% (+4%). If Labour’s conference is a funeral and the Tories get into a lather about Lisbon, maybe these numbers will hold up next month.