Liberal Vision

What does the (apparently) high turnout mean for the LDs?

From media reports and anecdotal experiences, it seems as if turn-out is going to be notably high today. Voting at around 8am this morning, I had to queue for 20 minutes. Upon leaving, the queue was three times longer than when I’d arrived.

Disorganisation seemed partly to blame, but there seems little doubt that people are skipping along to the polling stations in higher numbers than in recent GEs.

Typically this is said to favour Labour, whose voters are often less committed to the old ballot-crossing than their Tory counterparts. As West Hampstead now turns from chilly grey to a bright elucidation of colour, the prospect of a sunny May day could, as it’s also argued, increase turn-out further.

So what does this mean for the Lib Dems? It probably depends on the kind of seat up for grabs.  In the genuinely three-way Hampstead & Kilburn,  there seems a sufficient amount of Lib Dem support in the less salubrious areas, and among young people,  to suggest that it could aid our cause.

Many (tired) eyes will be on my little corner of the world come 4am tomorrow morning, when we’ll discover if Ed Fordham has successfully outed the acerbic south Londoner and ex-thespian Glenda Jackson.

This evening Liberal Vision will be bringing you all the latest news on this blog, and via Twitter.

Don’t forget to track us to see how things are going.

Touch wood for NOM, folks…

Tags: general election 2010, turn-out

Confirmed. The yellows really are the best way of stopping the reds.

Pinching myself hard, I find myself writing that, according to politicalbetting.com,  the Liberals top the opinion polls in the latest results to be published (BPIX/YouGov survey for the Mail on Sunday). Ok we may want to take one poll (and especially this poll) with a dose of salts – but a pattern certainly does seem to be emerging… the entire country agrees with Nick!

 

Tags: BPIX/YouGov, David Cameron, general election 2010, Gordon Brown, Mail On Sunday, Nick Clegg, opinion polls, tv debate

NEW POLL – LIB DEMS ON 35 PER CENT!

Word breaks that a new ComRes poll is showing the following voting intention:

• Dave Nu Lite Conservatives – 36%

• Super Clegg’s Lib Dems – 35%

• Gordo’s OldNuLab – 24%

Before you start running off to your constituencies and preparing for government, note that the poll was taken, I believe, only from people who watched the TV debate.

I’ll update and add links as and when they become available.

ConsHome are reporting it here.

Guido is reporting it here.

Update:

David Cowling, editor of the BBC’s Political Research Unit, has been examining that ITV/ComRes poll. He says: “This was not a voting intention poll but a panel of people who watched the debate and then gave their voting intentions afterwards. This is not a national random sample of the population – some 46 million people – but a sample of the nine million who watched the debate and we have no certainty that the sample even speak representatively for them.”

Also, Sky News report that the poll numbers are “still being finalised”.

Tags: comres, David Cameron, general election 2010, Gordon Brown, Nick Clegg, opinion polls, tv debate