Liberal Vision

A Lib/Con coalition is the only route. But….

After what was a very long night – and a couple of hours sleep – what’s the conclusion?

First it strikes me as somewhat amusing that all three party’s bloggers are disgruntled… Labour boys saying Brown’s got to go, the Tories asking how the hell did the Tories not win and that their strategists should go…and Liberals asking wtf happened to the so-called surge that left us with less seats than before. Lots of disgruntlement all round.

There will be a time and place to analyse the Lib Dem strategy and be in no doubt serious questions must be asked. But that is not for now. Now we have to ask what the Liberals do over the next 24/36 hours?

Nick did very well to make the statement when he did concerning the Tories. He looked decisive and in command. In reality he had no option but make that statement. A Lib/Lab coalition is not numerically possible unless it hoiks in all manner of smaller groups (all who seem to be demanding sack loads of cash for their support). A Lib/Con coalition does work numerically.And the Tories have more votes and more seats than any other party- though with only about a third (36%) of UK voters backing them, the Tories have no mandate to do anything.

Cameron recognises this – hence his expansive offer to the Liberals, an offer explained in some considerable detail (given the circumstances) on national TV,  on areas where he thought there was common ground – civil liberties (lets take him on face value for now), green issues, pupil premiums etc..Added to that John Major (who Cameron talks to a good deal we believe) has hinted that “seats in cabinet” might be on the table. What are we looking at 2/3 seats? Clegg/Laws/Cable ???? Probably.

On some issues he was less conciliatory. He disagrees with Liberals on Europe (though how many real decision have to be made in the next few years is questionable). He disagrees with Liberals on Trident (though this is down to cash and scales of resource and I guess not a deal breaker). The supposed differences on the timing of spending cuts are fewer than have been made out and immigration is unsortable by any party – so I am sure compromise can be found on all these issues.

On the issue of political reform Cameron has, however, put up a road block. His offer of an all party committee on political reform shouts of “kick this one into the long grass”…his suggestion that the Tory preference is a change to constituency boundaries shouts “kick this into very very long grass” .

He surely knows that this would be unacceptable to the Liberals – so is this just his opening offer – or does he really think he bully/face down Clegg on this issue? 

He is very wrong, if he thinks Clegg can roll over on PR.

Whilst a Lib/Con coalition looks like the ONLY way forward right now, Cameron & Clegg MUST find a deal on PR that they can both sell to their respective parties AND THE WIDER ELECTORATE.

At the moment, Liberals want PR now. Tories dont want PR at all….There is a solution here that both parties may find palatable. 

Agree to put the question of PR to the people in a referendum

Say – in the Autumn – with no whip involved. Tories can campaign against – and explain why. Liberals can campaign for. The will of the people decides.  

By now we all know about the Liberal “triple lock”  – Nick has to get any coalition deal through his party – and as we speak Labour high command are beavering away to make sure that a Lib/Con deal breaks down. Phonelines are hot as they call senior Liberal MPs and activists to put pressure on Nick NOT to do a Tory deal – using the “Tories wont give you PR , we will” line.  How do I know – I had a call from a “mate” from the other side asking me who in my opinion were the big guns on the Federal Executive (oh how I laughed).

So Cameron and Clegg need “to get real” fast. 

The Liberal parliamentary party (who must agree the deal) meet tomorrow (Saturday). The Liberal Federal Executive (who must also agree the deal) meet on Sunday. tick tock tick tock.

Tags: cameron, Clegg, coaltion, Election, election results, hung Parliament, lib/con coalition

Words about words

Is the Clegg/Cameron friendship cooling off before it even got going? Well, certainly a neat analysis (from Millward Brown) of the language employed during the last leaders debate would seem to suggest that it might be.  Clegg and Cameron had the smallest pool of common words by some way- just 13, compared to 27 shared between DC and GB, and 20 between NC and GB (see chart).  Considering that almost a quarter of their shared terminology was unlikely to be complimentary (“Gordon”, “Brown” and “Labour”), and the only meaningful phrases they shared was “council” and city” (both issues upon which they disagree) they appeared to have very little in common to say at all.

I’m afraid it’s a little hard to make out, but hopefully you’ll get the picture!

  

Of course, this is hardly a litmus test for co-operation but is does provide some interesting insights. Take a look at their top twelve words used list: 

Brown                                        Cameron                        Clegg 

people  62                                   people  61                         people  53    

tax     56                                     government      37            tax     49    

cut     45                                     tax     33                            money   26    

bank    32                                   year    31                           work    26    

country 32                                work    28                           pay     25    

David   31                                  bank    25                           bank    24    

credit  29                                   country 23                        Cameron 16    

job     25                                     economy 22                      David   16    

Conservative    24                   business        17                 income  16    

year    23                                  cut     16                             Brown   14    

economy 21                             money   16                         Gordon  14    

work    21                                 waste   14                          problem 14    

 

Neither Cameron nor Gordon made reference to “Nick” or “Clegg” enough to make the list. Fence sitting before a hung parliament, perhaps? And while tax and people topped all the polls, work was a strangely low priority in GB’s vocab- possibly starting to regret that tax on jobs he’s stoutly defended for so long?

One final observation from the shared words chart: Clegg was the only man to breathe the word “Chancellor”. In 90mins of debate in which the economy was the focal point, neither Cameron nor Brown dared to mention what we’ve all been thinking. No-one wants another term of Darling after the mess we’ve been put through and Osborne looks green and unsure. During times of financial uncertainty the minister behind the finances need experience and nous- Vince has both in abundance. Increasingly he looks like the only man well suited to steering our economy and Brown and Cameron both know it. Funny that Brown didn’t remind us of his (oh so successful) tenure as Chancellor isn’t it?!

Tags: Chancellor, David Cameron, Election, Election Debate, Gordon Brown, Nick Clegg

Lib Dem Flashmobs

..or is it Flash Mobs? I dont know… Anyway I doff my hat to those facebookers over at RATM for what they pulled off. I went to the London one. Many things struck me about the day, not least just how many young, previously uncommitted, non-voting young people they have not just connected with, but persuaded to actually do something. Nice one.

I looked on the web and found a number of great videos/pics etc. As I had this music running round in my head on the day…I put the two together. Hope those that attended like it – and thanks to all the video’s and photo’s used. Oh and there is a bit of Blackheath (from earlier in the day)in there too.

Tags: Blackheath, flash mob, flashmob, I agree with Nick, Liberal Democrat, Nick Clegg, rage against the machine, RATM, trafalgar square

Are manifesto sales a guide to election results?

Here’s a thought. I read over on the CNN website that sales of parties manifestos have reached record levels for this election. As they say – no apathy here then.

It reads….

“Now evidence of this comes with news that election manifestos – the documents in which political parties lay out their planned policies – are selling in record numbers, according to book trade media.

 “Political manifesto sales at Waterstone’s have already outstripped those during the entire 2005 election period,” reported UK trade paper The Bookseller.com, “up 160 percent with just eight days to go to the election.”

Andrew Lake, politics buyer for Waterstone’s , one of the UK’s leading booksellers, said: “This is clearly the most important election in a generation. I’ve worked in books for nearly 20 years and have never seen such demand for manifestos.”

The report goes on to say that , the Conservatives have taken 38% of manifesto sales so far,  followed by the Liberal Democrats on 32% and Labour on 30%. What is impressive (and perhaps not surprising given what we have seen in the past few weeks) Liberal Democrat manifesto sales are up a whopping 250% !

Does that count for anything I wonder?

Tags: CNN, general election, manifesto sales

Tory quote “If this was a safe seat we wouldn’t have to do this work”

Aarggggghhhhh. Really.  Joanne Cash – the infamous Cameron cutie standing in Westminster North really did just say that.

I just caught the BBC ONE Local London News. They ran a piece on fight in the seat. Just at the point when I was about to switch over to catch the tail end of the snooker, I was stopped in my tracks. OMG. No . Yes. No ..OMG… Yes!!!

She really did say 

“If this was a safe seat we wouldn’t have to do this work”.

If ever there was an argument for a change to the voting system of this country then this idiot woman is it. In a nutshell!

It’s what I hate about these “New Tory” politicians (and Cameron Cuties in particular). They seem to think that being an MP is some sort of X-Factor for the privileged. Can’t you just tell that they would prefer not to have to talk to the trolls if it could possibly be avoided. Don’t you just know that if they were to be voted in with some huge majority,  90% of the constituency (celebs and millionaires excepted) could go hang. Surgeries would only happen if enough surgical wipes could be supplied. And notes would be taken in beautifully crafted Smythson notepaper – and then handed to some earnest young wannabe to ..what …file?

This ladies and gentlemen is the Tory attitude laid bare. It’s why they dont want PR. Its why they like the old two party system. Why they love first-past-the-post. Ideally you only have to meet grubby people once every four or five years and really only the once every ten if the opposition is inept and your majority is sufficiently robust. 

This  is what people are and down this country are fighting against. 

Big Society?….High Society more like.

May no MP, ever again, feel it acceptable to say in public “if this was a safe seat we would have to do this work”

Of course, lest we forget this was THE Cameronista who, having being parachuted in by Cameron, (nothing to do with the fact that she is married to Octavius Black – an old Etonian mate of Dave’s)  resigned and then “unresigned”following (1) a row with the local party and then (2) Cameron’s intervention (yes in that order) ….. And blood all over the local constituency floor. Hmm David Cameron heavy-handed centralist control? Surely not?

Tags: Big Society, Cameron Cutie, general election, high society, Joanne Cash, Mark Blackburn, Westminster North