By Mark Littlewood
Tory splits over Europe aren’t what they used to be. Nevertheless, David Cameron got off to a shaky start to his party’s conference over the vexed issue of a referendum on Lisbon.
On the face of it, his position isn’t total nonsense. Basically, if Lisbon has not been ratified by all 27 member states, he will hold a snap referendum in an attempt to rescind the UK’s ratification, thereby preventing it coming into force. But, if Lisbon is already in place, he’ll have to find a different way to prosecute his plans to repatriate powers to nation state level – which may or may not involve a referendum.
But you don’t have to dig very far beneath the surface for this stance to start unravelling. It’s Parliament – not the British people – who would need to tear up our treaty commitments. This would, of course, be seen as a monumental act of bad faith by our European partners ( it’s hardly the EU’s fault that the UK’s system of government allows strong majority governments elected on 36% of the vote to wriggle out of their manifesto pledge to a referendum).
A Lisbon referendum would also give rise to the absurd situation of a government holding a nationwide vote in which they want to secure a negative answer. I can’t find any precedent for this in the history of human democracy. Referendums have always been used – sometimes badly – because the government wishes to achieve X but feels the need (or has a legal requirement) to secure the public’s explicit support.
And this shows how the whole European debate has warped a meaningful discussion on the proper use of referendums. Questions along the lines of “Do you like the Lisbon Treaty?” don’t provide much policy guidance if the answer is “no”. It simply begs the question “Ok, what the f**k do you want then?” It’s certainly not at all evident that the “no” votes in various member states have been an expression of settled public support for the status quo – i.e. the present, constitutional structures of the European Union (which is what you end up with if Lisbon falls). At some point, people need to say “yes” to something – even if this is a “yes” to withdraw completely from the European Union.
That’s why I don’t buy the Eurosceptic argument that a re-run of a referendum is intrinsically undemocratic. It’s wholly legitimate to go back and seek to secure a majority vote – especially if you were very close to getting 50% support first time round and if you believe you have taken compelling steps to understand and address the objections of “no” voters. (I gather the Irish government did this in 14 areas, before the second referendum).
So, Cameron has a difficult problem. His European strategy is no longer in his own hands. Britain’s policy and approach to the EU in 2010 now largely depends on the deliberations and legal processes of the Poles and the Czechs. So much for national sovereignty.
Our likely next Prime Minister also has an internal party difficulty. Europe is to the British Tories what abortion is to the American Republican party. With ConHome’s poll showing a huge majority of Tory members wanting a referendum come what may – and nearly half wishing to leave the EU altogether – an appeal to “move on” from their party leader will fall on deaf ears.
Perhaps David Cameron’s best option – if Lisbon is a sealed deal by the year’s end – is a consultative referendum on whether the British people support the British government’s attempts to repatriate certain areas of social policy. No doubt, the Tory leader could secure a pyrrhic victory and appease at least some of his hardcore anti-EU supporters. But the rest of the European Union could just turn round and say “no” to the new British Prime Minister. So, such a referendum would not be an expression of national sovereignty, it would a demonstration of how meaningless the whole concept of national sovereignty has become.
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David Cameron,
referendum 
If you haven’t seen it yet, Liberal Vision’s Sara Scarlett has an article on LibDem Voice, calling for the Liberal Democrats to reach out to the (often totally ignored) Co-operative Party and its twenty-nine MPs.
The view in the more hysterical reaches of the Eurosceptic press is that Tony Blair is heir apparent to become President of the European Council should the Lisbon Treaty be ratified. This fits a neat narrative for those on the Right who wish to warn Cameron that Lisbon is roughly synonymous with Armageddon. Tony Blair is the only man in three and a half decades to have successfully challenged – indeed, reversed – the electoral ascendancy of the Tory party. He is feared, respected and reviled by Conservaties in about equal measure.