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A Lib/Con coalition is the only route. But….

May 7th, 2010 Posted in Election, UK Politics by Angela Harbutt

After what was a very long night – and a couple of hours sleep – what’s the conclusion?

First it strikes me as somewhat amusing that all three party’s bloggers are disgruntled… Labour boys saying Brown’s got to go, the Tories asking how the hell did the Tories not win and that their strategists should go…and Liberals asking wtf happened to the so-called surge that left us with less seats than before. Lots of disgruntlement all round.

There will be a time and place to analyse the Lib Dem strategy and be in no doubt serious questions must be asked. But that is not for now. Now we have to ask what the Liberals do over the next 24/36 hours?

Nick did very well to make the statement when he did concerning the Tories. He looked decisive and in command. In reality he had no option but make that statement. A Lib/Lab coalition is not numerically possible unless it hoiks in all manner of smaller groups (all who seem to be demanding sack loads of cash for their support). A Lib/Con coalition does work numerically.And the Tories have more votes and more seats than any other party- though with only about a third (36%) of UK voters backing them, the Tories have no mandate to do anything.

Cameron recognises this – hence his expansive offer to the Liberals, an offer explained in some considerable detail (given the circumstances) on national TV,  on areas where he thought there was common ground – civil liberties (lets take him on face value for now), green issues, pupil premiums etc..Added to that John Major (who Cameron talks to a good deal we believe) has hinted that “seats in cabinet” might be on the table. What are we looking at 2/3 seats? Clegg/Laws/Cable ???? Probably.

On some issues he was less conciliatory. He disagrees with Liberals on Europe (though how many real decision have to be made in the next few years is questionable). He disagrees with Liberals on Trident (though this is down to cash and scales of resource and I guess not a deal breaker). The supposed differences on the timing of spending cuts are fewer than have been made out and immigration is unsortable by any party – so I am sure compromise can be found on all these issues.

On the issue of political reform Cameron has, however, put up a road block. His offer of an all party committee on political reform shouts of “kick this one into the long grass”…his suggestion that the Tory preference is a change to constituency boundaries shouts “kick this into very very long grass” .

He surely knows that this would be unacceptable to the Liberals – so is this just his opening offer – or does he really think he bully/face down Clegg on this issue? 

He is very wrong, if he thinks Clegg can roll over on PR.

Whilst a Lib/Con coalition looks like the ONLY way forward right now, Cameron & Clegg MUST find a deal on PR that they can both sell to their respective parties AND THE WIDER ELECTORATE.

At the moment, Liberals want PR now. Tories dont want PR at all….There is a solution here that both parties may find palatable. 

Agree to put the question of PR to the people in a referendum

Say – in the Autumn – with no whip involved. Tories can campaign against – and explain why. Liberals can campaign for. The will of the people decides.  

By now we all know about the Liberal “triple lock”  – Nick has to get any coalition deal through his party – and as we speak Labour high command are beavering away to make sure that a Lib/Con deal breaks down. Phonelines are hot as they call senior Liberal MPs and activists to put pressure on Nick NOT to do a Tory deal – using the “Tories wont give you PR , we will” line.  How do I know – I had a call from a “mate” from the other side asking me who in my opinion were the big guns on the Federal Executive (oh how I laughed).

So Cameron and Clegg need “to get real” fast. 

The Liberal parliamentary party (who must agree the deal) meet tomorrow (Saturday). The Liberal Federal Executive (who must also agree the deal) meet on Sunday. tick tock tick tock.

81 Responses to “A Lib/Con coalition is the only route. But….”

  1. Ziggy Says:

    here’s the question Clegg might go for a coalition with the Tories but will the party membership swallow it because the impression i get is the membership is more lefty then the leadership.

    You also shouldn’t forget the philosophical links many Lib Dems have with Labour


  2. Rob Says:

    The reality is, I think if the Lib Dem’s join with Labour, both will be punished by the electorate – the Tories should have first stab at forming a government – they performed better than anyone else.

    But some form of PR and a referendum should be the dealbreaker.


  3. Angela Harbutt Says:

    Ziggy – thanks for the comment. I think a lot of discussion/persusion would be necesary – but believe Nick has the support of the party and would get agreement if he and Cameron can find a workable solution on electoral reform.

    Re: philosophical links between Lib DEms and Labour – dont forget the history of the Liberal Party. we have tended to focus on the differences with the conservatives rather than areas of common ground.


  4. Ziggy Says:

    I don’t forget the history of the Lib Dems & that the ‘Dem’ part came from a merger with a party founded upon a split with Labour.

    What I was talking about philosophical links is specifically ’social justice’ which both Labour party & the majority of the Lib Dems believe in.

    As for a coalition & Clegg..

    The party was certainly 110% behind Clegg up to yesterday, but being as the Lib Dems lost seats I wonder how that affects grass root support.

    I think we all know that on the whole the grass root membership of the Lib Dems is more left wing then the parliamentary party & I’m not sure they will swallow a coalition with the Tories.

    Personally unless the Tories offer to institute PR then the Lib Dems shouldn’t even think about coalition.


  5. Ross Says:

    Labour has left this economy in a right mess and we need stable government now. Both Cameron and Clegg have said they need to work together for the good of the country NOT just for party/personal interests. During the leader debates the “worm” tended to go up when Nick mentioned about parties working together to solve this economic crisis. I for one welcome the Tories and Lib Dems working together and I’m positive that they will come to a workable agreement. If the grass roots of either party don’t like it, then they need to wake up. Want this country doesn’t need is further instability because Clegg is demanding Sam’s recipe for lemon ice cream, which isn’t on the table.


  6. Angela Harbutt Says:

    I dont think the grass roots have lost their support of Nick – it was afterall his performance that gave the liberals such a boost.

    Of course Nick will need to ask some very hard questions of those in whom he placed his trust on the campaign strategy front – and that may require the hard-headed nick to make some tough calls about those around him… but that, again, is not an issue for this week… he has more serious issues on his plate.

    I think PR is extremely important -I thought my post made that point very clearly. Cameron does have to give ground on this – I think a referendum is a reasonable compromise.

    One final point I dont agree that ” we all know the whole of the grass roots membership is more left wing than the parliamentary party” – I dont think anyone knows that… There are a good number of ACTIVISTS who see themselves as more sympathetic to Labour than conservatives- but the majority of those are sensible pragmatic people who are willing to engage/be persuaded by good arguement. Given that its numerically impossible to form a coalition with Labour without adding in a hotch potch of other vested-interest groups – and risk the wroth of the electorate if we choose to defy the voters – the issue is surely one of what must be done by conservatives and libdems to find a compromise that works for them and the electorate.


  7. Shamik Das Says:

    A Lib-Con coalition will come back to haunt you in Lib/Lab marginals, mark my words. This is a once in a generation opportunity to get electoral reform, with Labour – and only Labour; work with us and not against us.


  8. Geraint Says:

    There is a golden chance here ! Give limited support to a Tory government in opposition. Plan with labour a system of PR that we both agree with push for an election in around 12 to 18 months. With Milleband and Cleg the Tories will be out, get proportional representation and a slightl to the left coalition government will become the norm in the uk, reflecting the views of the nation ! Lets use this result against the Tories to damage them forever. Softly softly catch a monkey.


  9. Robert Roberts Says:

    Whether we like it or not, and I don’t – the electorate have voted for this hung parliament and it is the responsibility of all politicians who have any clout at this present time.

    From a personal point of view, I would much prefer a Lib/Lab coalition of sorts, but I know full well, that in those marginal seats against the Conservatives, both parties would get destroyed in the inevitable second election, say six months from now – and then the Tories would truly screw the Left, by sorting out the donations situation.

    Down here in the south east of the country, Labour was destroyed by the Tories, if that can happen to them, it can happen to the Liberals for what people here would regard as sleeping with the enemy.

    If Clegg and his team are able to get a clear guarantee regarding electoral and tax reform, possibly get Cable and Hulme into cabinet, then it might be in the party’s greater interest to go with that.


  10. Angela Harbutt Says:

    Shamik dont know if you were cosying up to us there or kicking us in the balls… or maybe you are cosying up to us just to kick us in the balls. Seem to recall that happening before….not sure Labour has much trust in the bank with liberals. In any event you dont have enough seats…


  11. Ziggy Says:

    @Angela

    ‘its numerically impossible to form a coalition with Labour’

    not with Labour alone but throw in the SDLP, the nationalists, oh & Caroline Greenie then there could be a progressive alliance type government but i’ll admit with how slippery the SNP can be its unlikely.


  12. Angela Harbutt Says:

    exactly Ziggy – i think the rate for an SNP Plaid Cymru or DUP member is about £100 million per MP – and i think that might be per annum! I think the electorate might raise an eyebrow or two at that.


  13. Nicholas Says:

    I think the real problem will be that LibDem activists are more closely aligned with Labour than the Tories, so any Con/Lin coalition will be unpopular with Liberal Democrats; they have traditionally supported Labour in such situations as this.


  14. Roger Says:

    I am a market Liberal by instinct.The first twenty five years I spent in politics was as a ‘left-wing’ Conservative.I held a number of positions in the party including Chairman of a major spending Committee on a District Council. I didn’t like the way it went and left in the late 80s. I eventually joined the Lib Dems and was for a while Vice-Chairman of a Constituency Party.

    It is my experience that there are sections of the Lib Dems who are really Social Democrats still and they should have rejoined Tony Blair’s New Labour Party. You can hear them now starting to scream at the idea of a Lib/Con coalition. They do not want to understand that there are some very civilized elements within the Conservative Party who believe in social progress, electoral reform etc. If David Cameron is prepared to have a referendum on electoral reform then I, for one, cannot see why we dont grab it with both hands.It cannot however be the fudge of a Speaker’s Conference.


  15. mpg Says:

    Angela

    there is no way the Cons will do ANY deal on PR. Any deal. Even a referendum. Cameron cannot sell that to thehardcore tribalists in his party. They believe, rightly, that PR has at it’s heart, the seeds political irrelevance for the Tory party. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas.

    The deal that will be done is the Libs will let Cameron put forward a Queens speech and an emergency budget. All of that will last six months max, there’ll be another General Election and we will lose even more seats to a newly crowned Tory-majority govt.

    It’s seems pretty inevitable to me unfortunately.

    mpg


  16. Ziggy Says:

    @Angela

    Funny enough Alex Salmond has said in the last few hours that a Con/Lib is not the only option, that there is the option of a progressive coalition & as well as the SNP, the Welsh nationalists & the SDLP, he could bring on board the DUP (I hardly call the DUP as progressive).

    But one would wonder what the price of that would be


  17. Ziggy Says:

    @Roger

    ‘It is my experience that there are sections of the Lib Dems who are really Social Democrats still and they should have rejoined Tony Blair’s New Labour Party’

    I’ve said much the same about social democrats in the Lib Dems though less politely.

    Though its true that social democrats belong in the Labour party in my experience I’ve accepted that they are the majority voice in the Lib Dems & you just have to take note of some of the opinions of Lib Dem members about this blog.

    I’m essentially a social liberal who wants pot legalized & I’m not welcomed in the party; I’ve seen & heard Lib Dem members say that those involved should get lost & join the Tories or the Libertarians.


  18. Ziggy Says:

    sorry typo

    last line should read

    I’m essentially a social liberal who wants pot legalized & I’m not welcomed in the party; I’ve seen & heard Lib Dem members say that those involved with this blog should get lost & join the Tories or the Libertarians.


  19. Douglas Says:

    I think that we should be joining a coalition with the Tories provided we have a referendum on electoral reform.

    The maths for any other approach – including a hugely variable progressive alliance with the Welsh Nat, N.Irish and SNP MPs – would be too difficult to manage for more than a few months.

    If we get a referendum, a stable coalition can be formed.


  20. mpg Says:

    A few things:

    @Roger
    If the Social democrats left the Lib Dems, you’d have about a quarter of a party.

    @Ziggy & Douglas
    The Tories are not going to give us electoral reform, or at least anything like PR. Full stop. Never ever. Don’t waste your time thinking it might happen. It won’t. Have a look at the tory blogs, especially COnservative Home, if you think Cameron can sell anything to do with PR to that lot.

    Whatsmore, I am not sure Cameron can sell a coalition to his own Parliamentary party. Liam Fox looks decdedly unimpressed by the idea and I am sure a lot of these new-bloods are not in compromising mood. I think a coalition is a dead-end.

    I say again, The Tories will give us no uarter with electoral or political reform, the LIb Dems will back down, let them run as a minority government. That will last about six months, there will be another election, and the Libs will get crushed.


  21. Cassandra Says:

    If the Lib Dems obsess over PR at the moment, they are doing exactly the opposite of what Nick Clegg suggested parties needed to do in the debates – work for the common good. There are currently more important things to be dealing with – our economy being the greatest priority.
    If PR was the people’s greatest priority, Lib Dems would have won the election.
    I agree that it needs to be dealt with, but I also thing that a coilition with Labour is a Colilition of (Biggest) Losers with the added complication of nationalist parties. Even if Gordon goes this is a disaster for the economy.
    Bite the bullet, either work with Cameron on the important things now of refuse to work with anyone and let the Tories form a minority government.


  22. Ziggy Says:

    Who decides what the ‘working for the common good’ happens to be?


  23. Cassandra Says:

    The voters. Who didn’t think PR was that important, whereas they did vote strongly around issues like the economy and immigration.


  24. Ziggy Says:

    Who says the voters know what the common good happens to be?

    Just because voters vote for etc does not make etc a good thing


  25. mpg Says:

    @Cassandra
    A political party always has to think in its own interests. Otherwise it shouldn’t be a political party, it should be a think tank.

    If the Lib Dems get into bed with the Cons, there will be consequences electorally. You have to factor those consequences in to see fi you can afford to pay the price. Should we do a deal with the Tories even if it wipes out twenty seats? It would still be in the interestes of the nation if we did that a provided the country with strong, stable government?

    BTW, I think we will end up with a Tory minority goverment, an election in six months resulting in a Tory parliamentary majority.


  26. Cassandra Says:

    Ziggy – I think voters are even bright enough to realize when the economy is buggered! I see your point but PR was not a major voting issue for most people. Not to say we should not have a referendum but there are many options worth discussing and not in haste.

    mpg – yes understand your point. Which is exactly why I agree we will get a Tory minority.


  27. Dave Atherton Says:

    As a Tory and Liberal Vision sympathiser, I consider myself ideologically a 19th century libertarian, free market Whig. The chasm I have with the Lib Dems is the EU. I see the EU as neither libertarian, or a free market, but social democrat, left of centre pap, masquerading under a near authoritarian, undemocratic, top down centralisation. Yes we have a welcome single market, but the “little Europeans” do not have the first idea in how through free trade we can increase our wealth by trading with India and China and lifting the 3rd world out of poverty by buying their goods and services rather than grants and subsidies which end up in Swiss bank acounts.

    I am slowly warming to to PR and AV voting as a vote for UKIP is not wasted and as they came in 2nd in the Europeans, global free market libertarianism may rise up the agenda, from some of the articles I have read. Also you may have to get used to knuckle scrapers like Nick Griffin standing up in Parliament offering “bon mots.”

    I can see a Lib/Con pact fracturing over Europe and there is a small possibility that the Tories may split too, or some Lib Dems, with a taste of real power may defect to the Tories, splitting you too.

    I read today that 84% of Tories, especially activists like me, either what a substantial renegotiation or withdrawal from Europe. It seems a little high as I thought it was about 75%.

    I did not walk the mean streets of Leyton and Wanstead for up to 12 hours a day banging on doors to surrender to Jose Borroso and a corrupt and incompetent EU.


  28. Roger Says:

    @ Dave

    Why did he bother to even leave that comment?


  29. Dave Atherton Says:

    @Roger

    To illustrate the fundamental differences between the two parties activists and the subsequent animosity that might exist too. After all you resigned to go elsewhere.


  30. Euan Gray Says:

    I am also a Tory (voter, not member) and a liberal one. I do not think PR is in the best interests of the country, but given that the matter has come to such prominence I think it would make sense to investigate it and hold a referendum. It seems reasonable to me that in any putative Tory/LD arrangement or coalition, each party should be free to promote its own view on this.

    As others have said, PR is not a major concern of the electorate right now. The broken economy and whole range of social problems are. It would make sense, would it not, to ally to defeat these problems wherever there is common ground or where a mutually acceptable compromise can be reached. Matters such as PR – which is probably the only really significant obstacle to alliance – can surely be left until the immediate, serious problems have been addressed.

    There are dangers for everyone in alliance. The Tories can suffer their own backlash if they get too close on important questions such as defence, Europe and PR. The Liberals can suffer the loss of support of voters who are probably in reality more comfortable with Labour. But the biggest danger for the LD party is surely to get closer to the tainted and electorally toxic Labour government.

    I hope that the future brings the eclipse of the socialist disaster and a healthy contest between strands of liberalism, represented by the idealism of the Liberals and the perhaps harder pragmatism of the Conservatives.

    I think this is the opportunity, both for Tory and Liberal. Obviously not much I can do about it as a Tory voter, but I hope the Liberal Democrats grasp this opportunity to supplant Labour. Who knows, as a principled and decent true liberal party which shows it can be trusted in government and will act honourably and sensibly, you may not even need PR…

    Good luck, whichever path you choose.

    EG


  31. Swiss Bob Says:

    The LibDems have this one chance in a generation to actually be part of a Government, gain some experience in Government and develop policies that are in the round attractive to the larger electorate for the next election.

    Just a shame you are bound to screw it up.


  32. vivienne birchall Says:

    Any party that keeps Brown in office will be thrashed in the election that will quickly follow in 6 or 12months time,Brown will NOT stand aside and I for one will never forgive the party that keeps him in office.


  33. Ziggy Says:

    ‘The LibDems have this one chance in a generation to actually be part of a Government’

    Err no they have more then one currently


  34. Ian Says:

    I hope you forgive my intrusion

    I am a natrual Tory who voted LibDem this time round I did so because i didnt want anyone having a huge majority and i think the result is what the politians deserve

    Mr Clegg has impressed me with his olive branch Mr Camerons response was breathtaking and a pleasent suprise

    Many people were tuned off by the expenses saga i am still angry more MPs have not been refered to the CPS but the TV debates got my attention and got more people to vote

    As a non ACTIVIST I would like to see a writen 3 4 year agreement between con and Lib Dem even if the Lib Dems dont get what they think is quite enough on PR / voting reform as long as you get 2/3 or 4 in the cabinet because that gives you a vast amount of credability – it go’s a long way to dispell the myth that Lib Dems wouldnt cope with power / never going to be in power – in one hit you are no longer (the right wing press typical portrayl)The beard & sandals brigade

    If you have an election in the short term it will be unpopular with the electorate in my view because the abiding memory of the TV debates was Mr Clegg’s slam dunk Why cant parties work together. the point I felt re engaged If you dont deliver that your appeal is diminished

    I admire the passion and dedication of all party activsts butI think the important thing for all activists to remember that if you cant keep a coalition together for 3 – 4 years you may well disapoint the electorate to such a scale the TV debates may well fail to rekindle interest and your hard work leafleting etc could be pointless

    Thank you for your time and attention I hope an outside view that has no partisan axe to grind is helpful / of use


  35. Ian Says:

    Sorry just one more point there is nowhere to go with a lib dem / Lab idea

    Two parties who have lost seats is not a winning team i would feal cheated so i guess would the electorate

    Even if Brown was forced out


  36. Nog Says:

    I am a Tory voter and member. I don’t have a problem with a referendum on PR at all. I don’t think it should be a party list system as that puts power into the hands of party machines. I think we should go the whole hog and recommend STV which puts maximum power in the hands of voters. The elephant in the room of these election results is that England has voted overwhelmingly Tory. Parliament is hung mostly because od Scotland. What you need to consider if you join with Labour is that not only do you have to concede disproportionate bribes to the SNP etc., but that your English legislation would have to be passed using Scottish MPs whose constituents would not have to fear the consequences. I also think that England may not wear further transfers of wealth to Scotland and you and Labour would be destroyed in England at a subsequent election.


  37. Ziggy Says:

    ‘Sorry just one more point there is nowhere to go with a lib dem / Lab idea’

    Well it would have to rely on support from the Scotish & Welsh nationalists, but they seem willing.


  38. Ian Says:

    Ziggy sounds like we are not going to agree

    if you sign up to keep labour in power how unpopular would that make you with the electorate

    To appeal to a bigger audiance in my view you cant look inward


  39. Jon Says:

    I think Charlotte Gore makes a very valid point in her blog that should the Liberal Democrats help forge a coalition of the losers simply to get a PR referendum, we could see the voters reject it as the tarnished product of an unpopular second Brown administration. Particularly if by that time we are all groaning under the impact of massive government debts.

    That would destroy the chance of electoral reform for decades. We know from Ashdown’s Diaries that many in the Labour party are also against PR, so don’t expect to see it back on the table once the necessity of seeking Liberal support expires.

    A Conservative-Liberal Democrat government would demonstrate that the Liberal Democrats can govern. This could give confidence to future voters. It would put many Liberal Democrat policies into practice (why have lots of policies if you only care about one?). It would also fulfill a desire often seen in opinion polls for politicians to work together for the common good. If the Conservatives then prove to be treacherous allies as some fear, well at least the voting public will see the Liberal Democrats acted with good faith.

    Many people say the Liberal Democrats have no ideological connection to the Conservatives, but one look at the Conservative party proves that is false. There are classical Liberals (Hannan, Carswell, Redwood) and social Liberals (Clarke, Gove, Maude). Even as unlikely an ally as Lord Tebbit has spoken approvingly of Liberal Democrat progressive taxation policies. On the Labour benches how can such authoritarians as Jack Straw, Gordon Brown and Alan Johnson (architect of tuition fees and enemy of scientific advisors) be close to the party of John Stuart Mill?


  40. Euan Gray Says:

    Jon @ 9:03

    I have always thought Tory and Liberal were far closer than Liberal and Labour on a great many questions.

    You can’t lose with Lib/Con (neither can the Tories, of course…).

    But you cannot win with Lib/Lab.

    EG


  41. libertarian Says:

    I think people are asking entirely the wrong question when they talk about PR/AV/STV etc. None of this is necessary if we actually had a proper democracy.

    All we need to do is directly elect the PM and executive and then separately elect constituency representatives. As we see in local govt the LD’s would have far greater representation in the HoC under this system as there is no longer a need to continually vote tactically depending on where you happen to live.


  42. John77 Says:

    Since the Scottish National Party have stated categorically in their manifesto that they will not form any sort of coalition with a London Party, the DUP is a splinter faction from the Irish branch of the Conservative party, Sinn Fein does not attend the House of Commons and Thirsk & Malton is virtually certain to return a Conservative MP there are only two possible coalitions that will have a majority in the House of Commons: Conservative with LibDem or Conservative with Labour.
    So Liberals need to think which of those two they prefer.
    Anyone who thinks differently should read the SNP manifesto and then try to make their numbers add up to 326 without doing things like including Sylvia Hermon, who took the Conservative whip in the last Parliament, or John Bercow in the Labour column.


  43. Ziggy Says:

    ‘Since the Scottish National Party have stated categorically in their manifesto that they will not form any sort of coalition with a London Party’

    Well that might be but here’s what Alex Salmond has said today

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/scotland/8669883.stm


  44. Jon Says:

    SNP and Plaid Cymru as partners would be pork barrels all round and about as enduring as Chesney Hawks’ music career.

    Nothing would be done about the debt, and you can guarantee Labour would be offering Vince Cable the Exchequer just before the nice people from the IMF came to visit.

    It would be a grand coalition of the losers, mercilessly portrayed as such in the tabloids. We’d get a PR referendum but we’d probably lose it as the voters would hate us for continuing to wreck the economy, and all the media would line up to kick us. Negative campaigning from the media destroyed the post-debate effect – imagine what another year of it would do wedded to solid evidence of fiscal incompetence (because if you think Labour will sort out the debt you’ve not been paying much attention over the last 13 years).

    Tories would then be in with a landslide this time next year, and the Liberal Democrats would be punished. It would take years to repair the party’s reputation.


  45. AF Says:

    “though with only about a third (36%) of UK voters backing them, the Tories have no mandate to do anything”

    How do you figure that?? Labour ran governments on the exact same % including their famous “landslide”. They took us into the damn Lisbon treaty with that % to govern for crying out loud.

    The Tories can go it alone if they want. The economy is the priority not this PR smoke screen Liberals are using to fudge their own failure and assert their non existent power.


  46. Angela Harbutt Says:

    Let me rejoin this debate. David cameron has rebranded his party as modern and “inclusive”. A lot of his talk during the election campaign was about “inviting the people to join his government” and wanting to “work with the people”.

    So I struggle to see why he would now seek to exclude the electorate from a debate/vote on how they want to elect the politicians to govern going forward. If he IS serious about this NEW Tory party – and its not a sham – then embracing the idea of a referendum on electoral reform seems a no brainer.

    The weight is as much on Camerons shoulders as Cleggs. If Cameron’s hands are tied by the “old school Tories” such that he can’t deliver a referendum then there is a danger that people will conclude that HE might be a moderniser – but his party is still the old NASTY party that likes to tell us what to do rather than listen.

    If this is the case – then many will conclude that the old toffs and “dinosaurs” are still in charge and the so-last- century “we know best” attitude still reigns.

    In which case it may be the Tories who are the ones punished at the next general election.


  47. NBeale Says:

    There should certainly be a coalition. We have a war and an economic crisis. Yes there should be a referendum on some form of PR but first of all people need to sort out the details and this will take a year or two. In the meantime urgent changes like reducing pay, cutting the number of MPs, recall ballots and reforms to voting arrangements to prevent fraud and disenfranchisement can happen quickly.

    Nick could be Deputy PM and Home Sec, Vince could be Chief Sec and there could be several other Lib Dem Ministers. A real role in government and preparation for the future. Failure to grasp this opportunity due to ideological die-hards would be unforgivable.


  48. Jon Says:

    Here’s a somewhat heretical suggestion to break the deadlock. If we believe in letting the people be heard on voting reform, we can hardly take the counter view on the matter of Europe.

    So offer a referendum on Lisbon to the Tories in exchange for a referendum on Jenkins’ AV with the understanding that the two parties will campaign on opposite sides in both. Then we shall see whose arguments prevail.


  49. Ian Says:

    You have created an interesting debate Angela but your last post worries me ever so slightly

    i worry about expectations of what is acceptable behaviour of a party leader or their background people adds to much dogma ( sorry might well be to strong a word i struggled and failed to find a less offensive word) to get in the way of a deal that i think the electorate (not activests / party members) want / expect from the politicains

    MPs lost public confidance over expences TV debates re engaged the public the GE result is what the public wanted to get away from the tribal excess’s and give the MPs a chance to prove they can find common ground

    whilst i have never been that involved in a party I can see those that have worked hard getting their message out need time to adjust and accept the result but
    To much inward looking to much activest / party member angst
    will be a turn off to the general public and they will blow it

    why cant this forum focus on what you can agree on and do away with any suspision

    If one does the other down the public will see it and act on it


  50. James Says:

    I don’t think a referendum on PR would be won at the moment. (And, yes, I have seen the poll in tomorrow’s S.Telegraph).

    Biggest bocker would be the press running an all-out “permanent evil coalitions, weak governments, hung parliaments” campaign.

    What is needed first is a period of hung parliament that produces demonstrably good government.

    Which side of the aisle to sit in the House of Commons is of course a big question. Whether the voters will be more impressed by constructive opposition, or hands-on running the country?

    My guess is probably the former, because the latter is lose/lose either way. If the joint government were to prove popular and successful, the Cons would likely pick up enough support to win a new FPTP election outright. Game over. If the coalition were unpopular, we’d take a hammering. The only way through would be if we could disproportionately pick up the credit, for keeping the government sane. But I fear that message would not come over clearly, and would just get lost in the political noise.

    I can see why Cameron would want us on board, and might find it worth offering some sweetners to make it seriously tempting. But opposition is probably safer.


  51. Angela Harbutt Says:

    Ian – hmmm. You have clearly never worked in a party or been an activist (especially a lib or lib/dem activist)or you would understand why party members are deeply suspicious of any talk of coalition. Nor can this debate be had without considering the party members concerns.

    History is littered with promises of electoral reform and every promise has been broken. That is why there is so much being written about how hard it will be to get broader party support from the Lib Dems..

    There are huge risks to being a junior coalition partner… and a party does have the right/duty to protect its future existance..None of these comments are necessarily at odds with the wider public interest.

    Jon – I think Cameron is the last person to want an election on Lisbon.

    NBeale. I think an offer of a referendum on political reform to be held (say) by this time next year would be fine.. as long as its a binding promise – not to be gone back on. I can’t see any coalition agreement without a guaranteed fixed term for it to run (i think that has already been agreed)- so if they can agree the referendum will happen WITHIN the coalition agreement period they’ll almost certainly be shaking hands on a deal. I agree that there are more pressing issues – and no one is saying sort PR out first by any means.


  52. Henrik Kiertzner Says:

    Excuse me parachuting into this discussion from outside the Liberal Democrat fold, but it does seem to me that your party is faced with three distinct courses of action, two of which would be disastrous in the near term:

    a. Go into some sort of half-arsed coalition with Labour + every man and his dog, get royally screwed at the polls by an incensed electorate when it inevitably collapses as nothing gets done about the deficit due to the insane tempo of back-room politicking and pork-barrelling required, to say nothing of the Labour implosion when they try to work out who should be the leader.

    b. Do nothing, allow a Tory minority government to form and pass a Queen’s Speech, get blamed by the media for not doing the right thing and get slaughtered by an incensed electorate when the inevitable election comes in September.

    c. Do some sort of deal with the Tories, who are sincere in looking for same, accept that electoral reform is on the agenda in the first Parliament, but also accept that your coalition partners will be posing opposing arguments to yours during the Referendum campaign.


  53. Giles Says:

    It’s a difficult situation for all. I believe Nick Clegg will roll over on PR, but Cameron will agree to electoral reform of some kind.

    Nick is stuck, as Cameron won’t support PR, and supporting Gordon Brown as PM in a coalition (also requiring virtually every other party in the commons) will lead to an even worse result for the Lib Dems in an election 6/12 months from now.

    Cameron will play hard ball on this as a Lib/Lab pact still doesn’t reach a majority and supporting Gordon Brown will appear as a betrayal of ‘new politics’.


  54. Vicky Says:

    Giles, why do you think Clegg will ‘roll over’ on PR, and do you honestly think his party will let him? It was my impression that PR was inscribed on the heart of the Liberal Democrats — am I wrong?


  55. Ziggy Says:

    btw if any is interest the Social Liberal Forum is calling for a government of national unity

    http://socialliberal.net/2010/05/08/social-liberal-forum-calls-for-a-government-of-national-unity/


  56. Ziggy Says:

    Oh to all those Tories who say PR is not important did they notice the protest yesterday afternoon, yeah the one which Clegg was forced to come out & address.


  57. Nicholas Says:

    Ziggy: Just because there was a protest does not mean it necessarily reflects the will of the British people:

    “Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field; that, of course, they are many in number, or that, after all, they are other than the little, shrivelled, meager, hopping, though loud and troublesome, insects of the hour.”–Edmund Burke.


  58. Ziggy Says:

    ‘Ziggy: Just because there was a protest does not mean it necessarily reflects the will of the British people:’

    Oh & your an expert on what the people want, you’ve been gifted with ESP or some other kind mental telepathy.

    Its been less then two days but I’m already pissed off with Tory arrogance assuming they know what the ‘common interest’ happens to be or assuming they know what the ‘national interest’ happens to be.

    Bollocks the only interest is self interest.

    Oh & if you going to quote Burke at, I’ll quote back something along the lines of evil will prevail if good men don’t act.

    Good on those protesters for reminding the Lib Dems on what they’ve been promising they’d support for years.

    Oh yeah & don’t think any of us dumb enough not to realise that the whole crap with ‘common interest’ or national interest’ & belittling PR as an issue, is a means of bullying Lib Dems into conforming with the Conservative line.

    At this election 45% of the electorate didn’t vote has it crossed your mind as to why? Sure the expenses scandal has done its damage to disfranchise people from participating in the democratic process, but the number of people has been falling over the previous two general elections & one reason is that people don’t think their votes count.


  59. Swiss Bob Says:

    The protests were organised by ’38 degrees’.

    If you think that bunch has any interest in PR, or in the LibDems being part of government you are dreaming.

    They were there in the ‘hundreds’, not exactly representative of the population.

    Added to the fact that people who talk about ‘PR’ could probably not even name ‘FPTP’ if asked what the existing system is let alone the alternatives to PR and FPTP.


  60. Mackem Kev Says:

    I used to be a member of the Lib Dems from the SDP side of the union but hastily left as it cosied up to Blair under Ashdown. Only an idiot would contemplate joining with a Labour party that has been so comprehensively rejected for its deceit and dishonesty.There is no reason to enter into any coalition which will ultimately lead to a further erosion in national support. There is every reason to appear statesmanlike by agreeing to support the conservatives as the natural government choice( more seats and votes) and voting for each policy on its merits.That appears to be what the electorate wants to see and any prospect of shady deals will tarnish the Lib Dems and PR for a generation.


  61. Ian Says:

    Angela you are right i am not an activst or a party member of any colour and my viewpoint may be lacking an internal view – but am I not the sort of person activists are trying to get their message to
    I want to try one more go at forwarding a non activist / party member viewpoit
    An extreme example when the tribes in South Africa Talked there was an insistance that there was no talk of history or who did what to who, it worked
    Nelson Mandela then helped with talks with all the Tribes in Ulster / Northern Ireland and he ripped apart those who were stuck in dogma from the past

    That is not to say they in Ulster / N I dont have painful memorys the past is important and should not be rubished, the question is how important is it to move on

    I am posting in good faith because as an ordinary voter who was and still is angry over expenses I was re engaged by Nick Clegg in the TV debates

    The electorate will not be dissapointed by the GE result and very pleased no one has a huge majority

    I can accept that all activists have worked hard given up a lot of their time will be upset their party did not get the result they worked so hard for

    But what your work did achieve is more people voting in general and less people voting for Mr Brown

    To me that is positive

    To my way of thinking a Con / Lib DEM 3 or 4 year WRITTEN (& published) agreement is what the electorate would like to see and I can see the following benefits

    No one can really afford another quick election ( except perhaps the tory’s)

    You are demonstrating restraint and saving public money

    You will have time for State funding for political partys to be introduced

    Parliament is cleaned up

    You can spend what money you do have on your holy grail putting your case for whatever version of voting reform you prefer.

    because you are in government you have greater access to the news media

    If you have your own people in government you are proving to the electorate you can govern (Very effectivly countering a much and often stated charge from Lab & Tory that your policy is easy to say because you wont be in government to carry it out)

    If i sat and thought about it some more I could go on & on
    but I dont want to write war and peace I am trying to ask hard working committed activists to serriously consider looking at the olive branch in a different way which i respectfully sugest is the way the electorate would look at it – Is that not what your hard work effort and dedication is designed to reach out to

    As I understand it your worry as a junior partner is that you will be shafted – I see that – so a leap of faith is needed.

    A leap of faith with a back up plan is the sensible way forward what you do as a back up plan in my view should be your internal discussion I have no real idea how i dont have your experience but what if

    You have an admirable doorstep leaflet programme if / when agreement is reached leflet the electorate on what you have agreed and update perhaps quarterly on what has worked what needs work etc

    If there is an issue that disadvantages you find away of explaining it to the electorate via Gardian / 24 hour news channells etc But not in a dogmatic all guns blazing way

    The electorate have said in this GE they want co operation to work if you go in with it in good faith but are let down or bullied or shafted The electorate will see it and punish

    Politics for many people has been a turn off – your leader has re engaged with a mini obama moment – perhaps his charisma could lead to a better more rewarding position

    The fact you have only lost 5 seats you might argue on reflection is a better result than being squeezed like you have been before I can remmeber a time when you had only 6 MPs so to my generation you have proved you are still credible

    I really hope this post is seen a postive contribution that was / is my intention and I thank you for your time


  62. nzpom Says:

    I’m a Brit now living in New Zealand (PR works fine here), with a conservative leaning government.

    What I find amazing about some of the comments in this forum from people who claim to support PR, is that they seem to be arguing for PR and coalition governments on the one-hand, but that coalition should only be with a left wing party on the other. That is not a tenable position.

    Get used to it, the electorate gets to choose the mix and sometimes you are going to have to work to find a position with parties of any colour to find a balance which more reflects the electorate’s mood. If you can manage to do that and make it clear that you are indeed working for the good of the country and keep you promises you may reap the benefit. It’s much more likely the electorate will vote for PR if they see coalitions working, which right now if far from certain. Hey we might even get to really drag the conservative party towards the centre, and get PR so the rabid conservative right can go off an form their own party (and then support PR no doubt).


  63. John77 Says:

    Ziggy refers to a claim that Alex Salmond who is no longer a Westminster MP has suggested a “progressive coalition” but (i) it does not say whether any of the SNP MPs are prepared to renege on their manifesto commitment and (ii) the BBC article says that Labour has rejected the idea of a coalition with SNP. So that is just a red herring.
    The PR protest was organised not just by 38 degrees but by a number of “progressive” organisations/websites that are allegedly non-party such as Power 2010, Left Foot Forward and a score of others but could only raise a few hundred demonstrators, around three dozen per organiser. So to call this a “mass” protest is a little misleading – more people got to mass in Wesminster cathedral every Sunday!
    OK Ziggy I get the message that you hate the idea that the Tories might be part of the government after winning most votes and most seats, but please can you put up a honest rational argument next time.
    There are three choices – a Con-LibDem government, a Con-Lab government or no effective government and a repeat General Election after a few months by which time the country will be in an even worse state and only the Conservatives will be able to afford to run an election campaign. Ziggy seems to want the last, which I think is the worst choice for Liberals.


  64. Ziggy Says:

    Oh yeah if you Tory types want to be serious to reducing the deficit then agree to scrap Trident & pull the troops out of Afghanistan as that will save a few billion


  65. John77 Says:

    Does being able to do arithmetic make me a Tory?
    Interesting concept…


  66. Ian Says:

    watching from a distance I am midly amused because it would seem to me that Ziggy is setting himself up as the John Presscott of Liberal Voice


  67. Ziggy Says:

    LOL

    Nah I’ve not screwed my sectary nor gone around punching folk nor taken up eating pies for a living


  68. Vicky Says:

    I truly hope the people involved in the various negotiations (on all sides) play more nicely together than (most of, not all) you lot here, or the UK truly is in trouble. Get a grip.


  69. Jock Says:

    I’ve written much on my own blog about this.

    Trying to form anything with the scum who got us into this mess is fantasy land. The numbers do not add up. Even the likes of Lord Greaves who I am sure in any other situation would be as appalled by the idea of a Tory led coalition as anyone else, knows that such a deal would be untenable.

    It would last months if that and if truth be known it probably was the Tories’ first thought until they too realised the maths did not add up – get a “progressive” (‘scuse me while I clear the bile from my throat) Lib-Lab coalition to screw it up and we’ll be in with a landslide that would make Atlee’s look like a minor rock-fall.

    As to whether PR should be a deal breaker, I don’t believe it should. And have written extensively about why. The best advert for PR would be to make Cameron a liar with his scare-mongering last week about a hung parliament being bad and a coalition worse. What they should do, possibly, is explicitly *exclude* voting change from the collective responsibility of a coalition, allowing the Lib Dems to join with whoever else wants to table a bill to try and achieve that for that one purpose. If the others don’t want to do that without being in power, then they are not believers and will likely not deliver on it even if they were in power.

    I believe we will find common cause with Tories like Douglas Carswell on voting change over time. But the reality is that there are other ways to skin that particular feline. For example, both parties, theoretically at least, believe in large scale devolution of powers. If major spending decisions are taken at more accountable local levels, and perhaps we can more easily gain PR for those since a. they are used to multi-members wards and divisions and b. they are more used to town hall coalitions, then in a sense what does it matter how we elect people to a toothless Westminster. But also that first step in fairer voting systems across England, joining those already in place in Scotland and Wales will be an important driver for change in the Westminster way of doing it, and we won’t have been seen as having hawked our soul (and/or economic sanity) for PR.

    We cannot wait six months or whenever another election might come along to start dealing with the fiscal situation. We are more like weeks than six months away from becoming one of the PIIGS. That *is* the result of politicians refusing to work together as Vince, Field and Bottomley called for last April we cannot allow refusing to work together to tip us from the private debt collapse into a sovereign debt collapse. The markets do not play the sort of fantasy economics the Treasury plays with its off balance sheet liabilities. They know that the real public sector liabilities are more like three times the stated deficit and they will want politicians to own up to that soon and look like they are prepared to address it.

    But I also think that such a deal would be good for the Lib Dems as a party. For too log now the more statist left in the party (after all as far as I am concerned I am radical left) has lost sight of the fact that the central understanding of liberalism is that we make people off by abolishing the layers and layers of state created privilege that disadvantages them in so many ways. Joining with Labour will not address it – for they believe that state intervention is the way to achieve that. The Tories cannot do it on their own because a large part of their constituency still consists of those that benefit from that privilege.

    But it is the cheapest, most liberal way of evening out the disparities in wealth in this country and then seeing whether any government intervention at all is needed to help the most needy – it will be far, far less than now, if at all.

    For the best part of a century, that fundamental insight has been missing from British governments, which have lurched from state interventionism to crony capitalism and back – and in the past thirteen years of course the fusion of both in Blair’s fascist corporate state,

    Incidentally Ziggy – I think your analysis of where the state socialist left in the party comes from is wrong. It is the “old Liberals” who love to point out (when attacking me as the aberration of liberalism) that their love of the state predated the merger and that in fact the SDPers are more likely to this day to be the “economic liberals”.

    Of course, as I say elsewhere, I would kind of prefer it all to fall apart anyway and for people to discover that living without a government is not just possible, but beautiful, but I doubt anyone’s going to let that happen any time soon!


  70. Angela Harbutt Says:

    Several posts over the past two days have called for sensible collaborative politics to get us out of the mess we are in.

    To return to the subject of my post. I agree with them.

    There will need to be leap of faith on both sides… there will need to be compromise on both sides… there will need to be give and take…

    there are a couple of things that will need to be sorted – that are currently “sticking points”. One of those is political reform. As I said in my post – I think the solution to this conumdrum is to allow the British public – in due course(but not too long) – to decide on what electoral system they want to determine the nature of their goveernment. I do not think that the Liberals should “demand” some form of PR in these discussions. Nor do I think the Conservatives should “deny” a new voting system. I think the compromise is to allow the electorate to decide. Not now – now is for sorting out more pressing matters. But within a senisble time frame – and no going back on their word once its been agreed. We’re all sick to death of that. I do think that it is in the nations interest for there to be a Lib/Con coalition. Here’s hoping they can reach agreement.


  71. Angela Harbutt Says:

    Several posts over the past two days have called for sensible collaborative politics to get us out of the mess we are in.

    To return to the subject of my post. I agree with them.

    There will need to be leap of faith on both sides… there will need to be compromise on both sides… there will need to be give and take…

    there are a couple of things that will need to be sorted – that are currently “sticking points”. One of those is political reform. As I said in my post – I think the solution to this conumdrum is to allow the British public – in due course(but not too long) – to decide on what electoral system they want to determine the nature of their goveernment. I do not think that the Liberals should “demand” some form of PR in these discussions. Nor do I think the Conservatives should “deny” a new voting system. I think the compromise is to allow the electorate to decide. Not now – now is for sorting out more pressing matters. But within a senisble time frame – and no going back on their word once its been agreed. We’re all sick to death of that. I do think that it is in the nations interest for there to be a Lib/Con coalition. Here’s hoping they can reach agreement.


  72. Ziggy Says:

    Geez Jock you do waffle on some

    In fact I’m surprised you’ve found the time what with all the pointless intellectual masturbation you averagely indulge in with your anarcho extremist friends at the Libertarian Alliance.

    ‘I’ve written much on my own blog about this’

    Yeah well its been a waste of your time because who gives a toss about what some bigot oh sorry I meant anarchist thinks.

    By the way if you’re still a party member does the party hierarchy know that you are going about saying you’re an anarchist & hanging out with extremists some of which have some pretty bigoted views?

    Oh so the thought of a ‘progressive alliance’ makes you want to puke…well many of your extremist bigoted views make me want to puke.

    Whatever you might now call yourself whether it be, anarcho-mutualist or geo-mutualist or even more apt an anarcho-w**ker, you’re just your typical libertarian bigot,

    ‘Incidentally Ziggy – I think your analysis of where the state socialist left in the party comes from is wrong’

    You would


  73. Ross Says:

    @ Angela

    “I do not think that the Liberals should “demand” some form of PR in these discussions. Nor do I think the Conservatives should “deny” a new voting system. I think the compromise is to allow the electorate to decide. Not now – now is for sorting out more pressing matters. But within a senisble time frame – and no going back on their word once its been agreed. We’re all sick to death of that. I do think that it is in the nations interest for there to be a Lib/Con coalition. Here’s hoping they can reach agreement.”

    Here! Here!


  74. mpg Says:

    @Angela

    The one thing that seems quite clear is that Cameron and his New Conservative Party are even more like New Labour than we previsouly thought. The revolution is gossamer thin. And Cameron doesn’t command that level of control over his party, especially since losing the election.

    Now I think the Lib Dem situation is extraordinarily precarious. As a serious political party, we face an existential crisis. And electoral reform is the only way out. But Cameron cannot give it, PR would keep the Tories out of office for generations. So how to over come this?

    During the early stages of this campaign I spoke with my Lib Dem PPC and suggested we back direct prime ministerial elections, with the resulting constitutional reform of separating the executive from the legislature, in a similar way to the US system. It would free parliament from the dominance of the executive, allow a prime minister to pick the best minds for his cabinet and not just from the narrow gene pool of parliament, give the people what they seem to want, which is the chance to directly elect their prime minister (I wish the public understood its own electoral system), and, most importantly for us, it would raise the chance of having a Lib Dem executive while keeping the beloved FPTP system.

    This would represent a huge compromise for the Tories, but its at least sellable.

    If the Libs don’t get some kind of tangible concession on political and electoral reform, we are staring oblivion in the face.

    mpg


  75. mpg Says:

    @everyone

    BTW, I’ve been reading the commenters over at Conservative Home. If you think the vitriol against your political tribe his excessive here, you should take a look at that blog…


  76. blanco Says:

    “work with us and not against us.”

    Excuse me, Shamik Das, who the fuck do you think you are? Who the fuck are you, to issue a memorandum like that?

    Fuck your party. You had 13 years to bring in PR. You didn’t. Now you want to cling to power by tricking the Lib Dems into thinking you can pass a law enabling a referendum on PR. BullSHIT you can. Not all of your MPs would go for it. And seeing as the numbers are tight, only if every Labour MP were whipped to within an inch of his or her life to vote for it, would it pass. The coalition would collapse soon after.

    So when the LibCon coalition delivers decent stuff, we will see who’s doing well in Lab/Lib marginals.


  77. gmc Says:

    I have voted Lib Dem in the past but did not do so this time because the economy has to be sorted and fast. A changed electoral system would be good but the economy is an emergency? The Lib Dems talk about the good of the country as their priority but it is starting to look like they are holding the country to ransom to get the electoral system they want. How can they even consider putting together a coalition of so many parties with so many differing priorities at a time when the country must have stable government! If this goes on much longer the public will turn against the Lib Dems.


  78. mpg Says:

    @gmc

    While you might be right about the country turning on Lib Dems if they did a deal with Labour, it is simply naive to argue that we are not acting in the national interest. Of course we aren’t. Neither is the Conservative Party. They are opposing PR because they think that it will keep them out of power for generations. Simple as that. Do you think that the Cons are acting any less than in the national interest for not being willing to give an absolute commitment to a referendum on PR?

    The fact is, the Lib Dems face grave difficulties electorally, whatever happens hereafter. For them not to think about those difficulties would be suicidal on the part of the Party and irresponsible in the extreme.

    We all have to be patient in this. Don’t worry, you’ll get your Tory government, one way or the other.

    mpg.


  79. gmc Says:

    I don’t really care that much for a Tory Government but ditching Labour is essential to any real recovery. I take what you say on board but the Cons have done rather better than the Lib Dems in the election. They didn’t get an overall majority but they were not far off and, if anyone cares about the voter, the Tories have more right than any other party to power. The Lib Dem proportion of the vote is small even allowing for the defects in the electoral system. I think the Lib Dems have a lot of general respect and are second choice for many people – just what you need in the kind of electoral system you yearn for. What I am really saying is don’t blow it all by propping up Labour when so large a proportion of the electorate is desperate to be rid of them. That’s all from me.


  80. mackem kev Says:

    It seems that the Lib Dems are prepared to prostitute themselves to ally with Labour today. If they prop up a Brown government,who really knows what excuse the man will come up with between now and Autumn to justify staying in Downing Street. The party will become a laughing stock and slip back into oblivion if this happens and the contempt from large chunks of the country will be palpable and well deserved. The endless talks and suggestion of shady deals will kick PR into the long grass of the minds of the British public and deservedly so.


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