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BBC poll: LibDem activists out of step with LibDem voters

September 21st, 2009 Posted in UK Politics by

libdem-conference-delegatesA ComRes poll released today by the  BBC’s Daily Politics show, asked LibDem councillors two questions – who would they favour us supporting in the event of a hung Parliament and do they think the expenses scandal has harmed LibDem chances?

On the expenses scandal, 12% thought their LibDem MP/PPC had been damaged and 78% didn’t.

On the question of which party we should support in government if we held the balance of power in a hung Parliament, 31% said Labour and 16% said the Tories (a “neither” option was not on offer, so the rest are in the “don’t know” column). That’s a 2:1 preference for Labour of those stating a preference.

In pretty stark contrast are the views of the 6 million people who vote for us (over 99% of whom are not party members).

Asked by ICM a month ago whether they would prefer a Cameron-led Conservative government or a Brown-led Labour government, 2005 LibDem voters split 61%-26% in favour of the Tories. Amongst (the diminished pool of)  LibDem voters in the 2009 Euro elections – the split was 42%-34% in favour of Cameron’s Conservatives, according to yougov.

The questions are not identical. But this is the best statistical evidence I have seen to suggest that there is a very measurable difference of political outlook between the 20% of the population inclined to vote LibDem and the 0.02% of the population who are active party members.

For what it’s worth, I would be a “neither/don’t know” voter on the “who would you support in a hung Parliament?” question and a Cameron over Brown voter on which government I’d prefer if forced to choose.

5 Responses to “BBC poll: LibDem activists out of step with LibDem voters”

  1. Monday early Lib Dem Stuff « Freethinking Economist Says:

    […] Excellent Liberal Vision have highlighted a split between Lib Dem voters and Lib Dem activists on which party they would rather the Party went into partnership with in a hung parliament.  Fascinating.   I am not sure I have a view: I am probably CentreRight on the economy, but think the Tories have been dreadful on this issue in the last 18 months.  Both main parties suck in different ways […]


  2. Richard Says:

    I suspect this has always been the case since around the 1960s for the Liberals.


  3. Charlie Says:

    These results are worrying for the party . There are plenty of self employed and those working in small businesses who have no time for the Labour Party dominated by government employed or the finance dominated Tory party. A return to teh LD representing the craftsmen, self employed and those in small businesses, especially manufacturing could earn votes. This may mean the LD returning to a party closer to that which existed prior to the 1920s collapse.
    If we make the country more socially and eonomically equal we need to greatly increase our manufacturing capability which means greatly increasing the number of skilled craftsmen, technicians, scientists and engineers. The German manufacturing capability is based upon the large number of small and medium sized companies who make the parts. This is only possibel because of the large skilled workforce.

    All organisations need administrators, they are like the oil which makes a machine work smoothly or the fat in the brain and marrow but what is required is highly quality, in the right place and not too much. What Labour has confused is the difference of putting on weight by increasing muscle mass and a large paunch.

    “Keep it simple stupid ” and “Proper planning and patience prevents poor performance” are two dicta which Labour and the City have ignored. The sheer compexity of the derrivative market lost contact with the foundations which were people with no income, no jobs and no assets and little education and training, taking out mortgages.

    Cutting government expenditure is not the solution. Drastically changing the nautre of government activity so we spend less money is what is required. When running a project csts are due to accommodation, plant, consumables and salaries. Reducing one item which only increase the the cost of another, is just changing the nature of the problem, not solving it.

    As Sykes of Imperial has said ” Spending a £1 at Imperial provides more value for the country than spending £1 at Thames Valley”. The danger is that by stating all degrees from all institutions are equal, and therefore worth funding;some people may end up with sub -prime degrees.
    After all Shakespear, Bronte, Austen, Dickens, Kipling, Orwell, J Conrad , K waterhouse and Frank Johnson all became good writers without going to university.

    When it comes to the NHS rather than concentrating on the NHS we should be concerned about the health of the nation.
    People eating less fat, refined carbohydrate, sugar, salt , smoking and drinking less; and eating more vegetables and taking up more exercise, will probably contribute make the largest contribution to improving our health. If we look at Japan, the population older than 65 is remarkably fit and healthy due to their diet and exercise they take.

    If we really want to make “Power to the people a reality” people need to want to make effort to obtain the education, skills and fitness and health so they an maximise their control over the life. One can take a horse to water but one cannot make it drink. The tree of knowledge needs to be pruned and watered to bear fruit. Knowledge is power. In Germany, Scandinavia and Austria a much higher proportion of the population appear to make the effort to obtain the education, skills and and health which makes life more enjoyable.


  4. Everyone Says a Tory-Lib Dem Deal is Impossible; Everyone is Wrong » Spectator Blogs Says:

    […] Tory-Liberal deal but their voices are not the only ones Clegg needs to listen to. Whereas a poll last year found Lib Dem councillors preferring a deal with Labour by a two to one margin an ICM poll conducted […]


  5. Could You Vote for the Liberal Democrats? » Spectator Blogs Says:

    […] bloggers such as Charlotte Gore – but they’re a minority within their own minority. As Mark Littlewood says, a new BBC poll confirms this: asked who the party should support in the event of a hung […]