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Prime Minister Johnson will lose the election, but could still torpedo Cameron

June 1st, 2009 Posted in UK Politics by

alan-johnsonWith expectations of a full scale Labour meltdown in the local and European elections this week, we are in another wave of speculation about whether the Prime Minister is about to be ousted in a coup. If the Labour Party had retained any sort of sense of self-preservation, Brown would have been shot long ago. But perhaps this time, his Cabinet colleagues will finally grow a backbone.

Surely, it’s way too late for the government to stand even a remote chance of clinging on for a fourth term. Their real challenge is just to avoid full scale electoral oblivion. Prevailing orthodoxy – although no actual polling data – suggests that Alan Johnson is the man to pull Labour back from its headlong dive towards annihilation.

That’s why the Health Secretary’s suggestion of a referendum on electoral reform might be more than mere kite-flying. Giving the public a straight choice between AV Plus and FPTP on General Election day could – if won by electoral reformers – cause the Tories some major positional difficulties during the election campaign and Cameron a huge headache as the incoming Prime Minister.

Although electoral reform wouldn’t necessarily be the dominant issue in the run-up to polling day, it would be a significant one. The Conservatives would be practically alone in advocating a “no” vote. This would flush them out as being merely committed to tinkering and cosmetic constitutional change.

But – deliciously – if the AV Plus proposal was carried, Prime Minister Cameron would be faced with having a duty to legislate for a major constitutional change that he personally opposed. If he failed to do so – and swiftly – his hand-wringing about the lack of a vote on the Lisbon Treaty would sound very hollow indeed.

As setting political traps goes, Johnson has a far sharper mind than the present incumbent of 10 Downing Street. Mind you, that’s not a particularly high hurdle to clear.

2 Responses to “Prime Minister Johnson will lose the election, but could still torpedo Cameron”

  1. Stu Says:

    Or, to put it another way, the most callous, incongruous and disingenuous reform ever made would take place.

    Seriously, guys. How is it ‘fair’ to force sweeping changes to the electoral system without winning an election? You have to actually win an election. Then you’re allowed to make changes.

    Or has everyone forgotten what ‘democracy’ means?


  2. Mark Littlewood Says:

    I don’t object to a referendum on these big constitutional matters (in the same way that I don’t object to a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty). Our democratically-elected Parliament decided to ratify the treaty, of course.

    A referendum wouldn’t force electoral reform on anyone. The electorate can vote to keep First Past The Post if they want – it’s up to them.

    I think that’s a fair analysis of what democracy means.

    A problem with electoral reform, of course, is that all parties have typically favoured change or the status quo in line with their own narrow partisan interests (or perhaps it’s just a happy coincidence). This makes it a particuarly appropriate issue for a referendum.