NEW TIMES POLL: LD AND LABOUR CRASH
May 29th, 2009 Posted in UK Politics by Julian Harris
The Times has just revealed some findings of a new poll, carried out by Populus ahead of the Euro elections next week.
The poll shows voting intention per se, combined with an added question asking how respondents will vote next Thursday.
Worryingly the LDs are severely down on both counts.
Here are the stats:
Overall standings
Conservatives – 41% (+2)
Labour – 21% (-5)
Lib Dems – 15% (-7)
Euro Election standings
Conservatives – 30% (-4)
UKIP – 19% (+13)
Labour – 16% (-9)
LDs – 12% (-8)
Green – 10% (+5)
A couple of weeks ago I suggested on this blog that UKIP would be significantly greater beneficiaries of Snoutgate than the BNP.
Full details of the poll will be published tomorrow.
May 29th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
Oh what! That can’t be true.
May 29th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
How the hell can the Tories have escaped a backlash against their shameful record over the expenses. UKIP the lunatic rabble fringe on 19%?? I smell a rat in this poll and it’s got Nigel Farage-shaped wiskers!
May 29th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
I reckon the Tories will be in for a few more exposures courtesy of the Telegraph before the election to weaken them. The LibDems are reaping the rewards for their betrayal over the Referendum which has been publicised again recently. Fair enough.
May 29th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
The Tories have already had the lions share of the expenses exposures (37%) so I dont see any further reverlations damaging them that much; they are being insulated for two reasons I would suggest, they are the main opposition party and as I was told on Twitter, the people and want change and Cameron’s personal approval rating is high for this issue. What should worry us is the way our Euro vote has flaked largely to the Greens on the evidence of the raw numbers. I still think the Greens could well push us into 4th (and Labour into 3rd if they really surge).
Isn’t it right Julian that the comparative figure is -2 for us on the last Populous poll? If that is the case then that suggests a straight switch from us to the Conservatives (with Labour’s vote going to ‘others’ i presume)?
May 29th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
The details of the poll show that the Lib Dems have been least badly affected of all the major parties by the expenses scandal. Clegg has come out way on top.
Such analysis makes these figures hard to explain, unless the Lib Dem vote is ‘softer’ than that of the others and so has fallen off disproportionally.
I’m not too worried about 1 poll. Let’s wait for the real results next week, keep an eye local by elections and keep focussed on the bigger picture…namely the GE.
Equally, Clegg has done an outstanding job this week of putting Lib Dem’s ahead of the reform curve…we need to keep the momentum going on this.
100 days to save parliamentary democracy!
May 29th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
Of course the Liberal Democrat vote is naturally softer; a goodly portion of it is a protest vote and protest votes tend to be very fickle indeed….
May 30th, 2009 at 9:58 am
We are a nation, badly served by it’s media. No debate about the things that matter, and yes whilst this Expenses Debacle is news worthy – it is totally overwhelming everything else. Can’t recall the media saying much about excess in the city before last autumn, can you?
When elections revert to little more than primary colours, Green for the environment, UKIP for carelessness about Europe, we haven’t really got our identity sorted.
Less than 15% and fourth or worse, against such an unpopular government and both main parties taking the brunt of expenses exposure would need some real soul searching.
The ELDR campaign looked much more attractive in presentation. I Vote Liberal!
I don’t have the answers but maybe honest & progressive?
May 30th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Rightly or wrongly the vast majority of the British population are Eurosceptic, 55% would leave the EU today if given a vote. It does not help when in the 2005 maniesto Labour renegued on a referendum, Mr. Clegg kind of promised one and Mr. Cameron says that if the 3 countries who have hitherto rejected the Lisbon Treaty have subsequently adopted the treaty then the electorate will not have any choice either. This is utterly cynical and contemptable from the Tories.
I am afraid IMHO a root and branch selling of the EU which may take up to a generation to achieve will be required before anyone can wear their EU friendly heart on their sleeve.
May 30th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
still leaves 45% to go at! I don’t think we have actually said that much on Europe actually.
Certainly Tory leaflets have painted us as being blindly pro everything bad about the EU, and certainly around he we haven’t had any Lib Dem leaflet – everyone but!
May 30th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Lol. Let’s wait for the results of the Euros and the Local’s.
May 31st, 2009 at 1:07 pm
I am not expecting great results in the Euro-elections, but that, as Dave Atherton says, is more to do with the nature of the beast itself than any shortcomings from Clegg’s (much-improved) campaigning.
A truer test will be some of the locals; while there’s likely to be little joy in Conservative-dominated counties like Buckinghamshire, the results from the West Country could be a useful pointer regarding the GE and how well the LD vote is likely to hold up against the Conservative challenge in seats where the Lib Dems have a fighting chance.