Labour collapses to 22% in latest opinion poll
May 14th, 2009 Posted in UK Politics by Mark Littlewood
The latest opinion poll, conducted by yougov, is in The Sun. It shows the Labour vote at an all-time low of 22%, with the Tories on 41% and the LibDems on 19%. This is the first poll to fully take account of reaction to the Fiddlegate revelations -and shows the minor parties on a combined total of 18%.
This puts Labour in possible meltdown territory in a General Election – and suggests a collosal number of votes for fringe parties on June 4th. At the last Euro elections, in 2004, 64% voted for the “big three” and 36% of voters voted for minority parties. The British National Party must be licking their lips. I’d be amazed if BNP leader Nick Griffin isn’t now elected as an MEP in the the North West region.
May 15th, 2009 at 12:45 am
So 82% of the electorate will still vote for the 3 corrupt parties that are going to sell them out to the EU? That doesn’t square with what I read, or what I saw on Questiontime. Still, who knows, if they do they deserve everything they get.
May 15th, 2009 at 1:03 am
There are actually 2 polls here and this post is kinda confusing because it conflates the two. One is the GE one which you rightly report the headline figures of; in the Euro one UKIP are tied with the Lib Dems and Labour on 19%. You are probably right that Griffin will pick up his seat but the clear winners in the Euro poll are UKIP not the BNP and the 12% they pick up in the Euro poll is 9% lost Conservative support.
May 15th, 2009 at 1:40 am
I didn’t conflate the polls – this is the General Eelction poll, for clarity – not the Euro poll.
I haven’t seen the full data for the second poll, but I gather the BNP is at 4%.
I’d expect (a) this to be an underestimate of their support and (b) their support to be higher in the North West than most otehr regions.
May 15th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Admittedly I dwell within a southern, liberal bubble, so this may be way off the mark – but if people want to make an anti-politics vote, and are anti-migration and anti-Europe – why wouldn’t they just vote UKIP (rather than BNP)? Are UKIP perhaps seen as too southern / conservative in parts of the north?
May 16th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Julian, UKIP are non racial and sectarian, although Lord Pearson the UKIP peer blatantly was going for the BNP vote when he invited Geert Wilders over. Also UKIP as the champions of free trade are not necessarily anti immigration. On the BNP, half of their supporters are rabid rascists and the other half are sincere in thinking that 3rd world immigration has gone too far. Labour has denied them a debate and play the race card. Abusing someone as racist has lost its ability to insult, especially among working class people. They see these immigrants as a far greater problem than a cheap epithet.
May 16th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Hi Dave, thanks for the comment.
I very much agree that UKIP are not in the same bracket as the BNP, and didn’t mean to imply this in my comment (so apologies if I did). My feelings are more that the BNP, to have electoral success in the EU elections, would need to reach considerable beyond their core vote; it had been suggested that they could do this due to the “anti-politics” vote, so I was questioning why such votes wouldn’t fall to the more reasonable UKIP. And if such voters are anti-immigration (which I’d have thought would be a central sentiment of anyone considering voting BNP) then I maintain that UKIP would appear attractive. I recall Kilroy-Silk saying in the run up to an election that he wanted to “end immigration” (his exact words), and more recently UKIP listed five freedoms on their homepage, one of which was “freedom from over-crowding”. Their current policy page promises a “firm line on immigration”. They are therefore very much seen as anti-immigration.
So to return to my main point – I can understand that there must be a lot of people thinking: “All these MPs are scum, I’m not sending more of their kind to Brussels. I hate Brussels, we need to reclaim our Englishness, immigration is out of control bla bla bla”. Wouldn’t this section of the electorate rather vote UKIP than the BNP?
May 16th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Julian, thanks for your reply, no sleight inferred. The anti politics vote presumably will be split left and right. The BNP will pick up the Labour votes, the BNP being left of centre economically, while UKIP will pick up the Tory dissenters. On UKIP’s immigration stance I bow to your superior knowledge. However, what the mainstream parties “don’t get” is that many people are voting BNP purely for their stance in immigration. MigrationWatch have estimated that by 2100 at the current levels of immigration, the high birth rate amongst 3rd world immigrants, a low birthrate with the Europeans, we will be a minority in our own country. Being blunt, the working class live in the areas of high ethnic concentration and can see their culture at best compromised, political correctness, perceive housing and funds allocated to minorites preferentially. For 12 years criticism of this climate has been met with barage of insults and silencing, they have had enough. The BNP for Labour and the rest of the country is a car crash waiting to happen.